Clemens' Upcoming Bid for Self-Acquittal Will Likely Blow Up in His Face

Jan 28, 08:00 PM

Monday, they released something called "An Analysis of the Career of Roger Clemens," and are planning, I believe, to read it aloud _ all 18,000 mind-numbing, eye-glazing, reality-distorting words of it _ before Congress when Clemens testifies Feb. 13. Their hope, it appears, is that by droning on through all 45 pages, 31 charts and one "exhibit" apparently compiled to prove that Clemens' subpar 2005 season was all the fault of his pansy-hitting Houston Astros teammates, they will put Congress, and the rest of the country that still cares enough to watch, into a blissful and unconcerned slumber.

The report certainly had that effect on me Monday afternoon, and I highly recommend it to anyone suffering from insomnia or sleep disorders of any type. Unlike the drugs Clemens has admitted to taking, it is available on the Internet without a prescription and is much cheaper and safer than Lunesta or Ambien CR. This collection of statistical comparisons and other arcane might read like pornography to Bill James and his ilk. To the rest of us, it seems designed to misstate, sedate and obfuscate.

But really, what else does Clemens have left? He's tried the "candor" routine with Mike Wallace, and wound up revealing himself as a liar. (Remember how "Brian McNamee never injected me with anything" morphed into "Brian McNamee never injected me with anything other than Lidocaine and B-12?")

Clemens has tried the "look at what a good guy I am" routine by playing that taped phone call to McNamee supposedly made because he was concerned about the health of McNamee's 7-year-old son. But he hardly even asked about the kid. He spent most of his time sounding like what he was, a guy wearing a wire trying to get another guy to spill something. The fact that the other guy was probably wearing a wire, too, made for a rather awkward and unsympathetic conversation.

Then he tried to play the "hit me with your best shot" card by pretending to stand up to a group of reporters bearing questions. But once the questions got too tough, he threw a tantrum and stormed off.

So now, it's time for his agents to get involved, with their numbers and their charts and their comparative analysis of the type they usually use to "prove" that their client is worth more than a team is willing to pay. Only this time, Randy Hendricks, et al, are trying to prove that Clemens really wasn't all that much better than everyone else. Hence, he must have been playing clean.

Like his previous three attempts at self-acquittal, this one, too, will blow up in Clemens' face. Provided anyone is still awake to reach the end of the report.

It's bad enough that he uses Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan as examples of pitchers who have been effective past the age of 40 to prove that he is clean, because that asks you to presume that they are, too, or in the case of Ryan, were. But that is a dangerous game to play these days. All too often, "clean" means "not yet caught" or "too smart to pay by credit card" or simply "not yet on the list of a personal trainer turning state's evidence." And just because a guy (read: Schilling) screams that he would never touch the stuff doesn't mean he never has. (See: Palmeiro, Rafael).

What's worse is Page 42 of the report, featuring a chart of 31 "Hall of Fame pitchers who pitched into their 40s." Not only is the chart wrong _ or dishonest _ since five of the pitchers listed _ Mordecai Brown, Jim Bunning, Bob Gibson, Walter Johnson and Robin Roberts _ never played past 39, but it demonstrates precisely the opposite of what Team Rocket was trying to prove.

Of the 26 pitchers who actually did pitch into their 40s, four did amass more post-40th birthday wins than Clemens' 66. But two of them, Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm, were knuckleballers, who presumably can pitch far older than pitchers like Clemens, who rely on power. They should not be included in the equation. Of the remainder, a group that includes Cy Young, Lefty Grove, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Warren Spahn and Grover Cleveland Alexander, none came close to the dominance Clemens showed in the four-plus seasons since his 40th birthday, in which he has gone 66-36, a winning percentage of nearly .650, with an ERA consistently below the league average.

By contrast, the combined record of the other 40-somethings, minus Niekro and Wilhelm, is 672-646, a winning percentage of .509, the average post-40 record a mediocre 26-25. And that includes Johnson, Schilling and Ryan.

Any way you crunch the numbers, Clemens' post-40th birthday career has been remarkable, astounding and unprecedented. And highly suspicious.

We didn't need a statistical analysis to tell us that. But clearly, we will need Congress, or some other disinterested party, to tell us how and why he managed to do it. That is, if they can manage to stay awake.

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