Republicans: This Time, in Conservative State, He Prevails.

Jan 20, 03:41 AM

Jan. 20--COLUMBIA, S.C. -- John McCain defeated Mike Huckabee in the South Carolina primary yesterday, staking a tenuous claim to the title of front-runner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

In South Carolina, the Arizona senator did something that he hadn't done this year or in his failed campaign eight years ago: He prevailed in a deeply conservative, reliably Republican state.

His narrow victory, built with support from the state's large contingent of veterans, allows him to claim that he best combines electability in the fall with acceptance, sometimes grudging, from the GOP's various factions.

In exit polls, 42 percent of those questioned said they believed McCain had the best chance to win the general election, twice as many as chose any other candidate.

"You know, it took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain said at his victory celebration in Charleston, referring to his bitter defeat at the hands of George W. Bush in the 2000 primary, a defeat that effectively ended the senator's candidacy.

"There are some tough contests ahead, starting tomorrow in the state of Florida, where we're going to win," McCain said. "But, my friends, we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances."

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney handily won the other event on yesterday's political calendar, the lightly contested Nevada caucuses, building up his lead in terms of total delegates.

Now, the Republican focus shifts to Florida, which holds its primary Jan. 29 and where the all-but-forgotten former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, has taken up residence and is prepared to make his stand.

McCain and Huckabee were followed in the South Carolina voting by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Romney.

Huckabee, hoping to demonstrate that his win in the opening caucuses in Iowa was no fluke, came up short in a state that one of his ranking supporters had described as "tailor-made" for him.

The former Arkansas governor got strong support from evangelical Christians, who made up more than half of the electorate in the primary. But he wasn't able to expand his base much beyond the evangelicals.

"This is not an event; it is a process," Huckabee told his supporters in Columbia, after congratulating McCain. "And the process is far, far from over. . . . The path to the White House is not ending here tonight."

For Thompson, who entered the race last fall portraying himself as the logical successor to Ronald Reagan, his weak showing in South Carolina might mark the end of the road.

Thompson spent the last week and a half in the state, which he had targeted from the outset. But he was never able to shake the notion that he was making himself available for the nomination, as opposed to running for it all out.

"My friends, we will always be bound by a close bond because we have traveled a special road together for a very special purpose," he said last night in Columbia in what sounded like a political valedictory.

In Nevada, Romney was the easy victor. Texas Rep. Ron Paul edged out McCain for second, far behind the leader.

Romney and Paul were the only candidates to spend time campaigning in Nevada during the last week, with the others concentrating on South Carolina.

"Today the people of Nevada voted for change in Washington," said Romney, who now has three wins, including Wyoming and Michigan. "With a career spent turning around businesses, creating jobs, and imposing financial discipline, I am ready to get my hands on Washington and turn it inside out."

According to the exit polls in South Carolina, McCain, the New Hampshire winner, ran even with Huckabee among Republicans. His margin of victory came from voters who identified themselves as independents.

The results also showed how divided the GOP rank-and-file remains. As has been the case in all of the highly contested states thus far, the winner got less than 40 percent of a splintered vote.

Every presidential election year since 1980, the winner in South Carolina has gone on to capture the GOP nomination, with the establishment candidate usually shutting down the challenger here. This year, though, there is no one who qualifies as the establishment candidate, although McCain may be on the way to earning that label.

Florida, next up for the Republicans, is significant for several reasons.

The primary there is the last major contest for the GOP heading into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when 22 states will hold primaries and caucuses. Unlike the events to date, it is winner-takes-all, meaning that whoever gets a plurality of votes wins all of the delegates.

It will provide a direct showdown among McCain, Romney and Giuliani, the former national front-runner who hasn't finished better than fourth in any state thus far.

And it will pose a very different test for Huckabee, as a Southern state where evangelicals are numerous but far from dominant.

Weather across South Carolina was poor yesterday, with rain throughout the day and a little snow in the western part of the state. That may have contributed to a turnout that was far below the record of 573,000 in 2000, when McCain lost to Bush.

The campaign leading up to the primary was a surprisingly polite, almost tepid affair, particularly when compared with years past.

Eight years ago, when McCain lost by a wide margin to Bush, the senator was the subject of hate mail, anonymous phone calls, and untraceable rumors about his military service, his family and his integrity.

And Bush and McCain got into some very public name-calling, both in person and in their commercials.

In this race, Huckabee and McCain rarely had an unkind word to say about each other. In fact, they barely engaged at all, with Huckabee talking about family values and economic security, and McCain stressing his experience and national security.

Contact senior writer Larry Eichel at 215-854-2415 or leichel@phillynews.com.

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