Polls Show Romp for Dems If GOP Doesn't Pick McCain

Jan 20, 10:54 AM

A Jan. 10 national poll by CNN shows Barack Obama has a 55 percent favorability rating, John McCain 54 percent, Hillary Clinton 53 percent, Rudy Giuliani 46 percent, Mike Huckabee 38 percent and Mitt Romney 31 percent. CNN did similar polling in June. The numbers show that the more people see Clinton, Obama and McCain, the more they like them. The difference between McCain's favorable- unfavorable ratings increased 11 points, Clinton's 7 and Obama's 4. The opposite is true with Giuliani and Romney. In June, Romney was disliked by 23 percent. Now, 39 percent see him unfavorably. Giuliani's fall from grace is more stark. In June, he enjoyed a high approval-to-disapproval rating (58 percent to 27 percent). He now has a more pedestrian 46 to 39 rating.

2. NATIONAL STAGE FAVORS DEMOCRATS

The same CNN poll asked respondents to react to hypothetical matchups. Somewhat surprisingly, Clinton and Obama would not only win if the election were held today but would win handily against Giuliani, Huckabee or Romney. This same trend is seen when respondents were asked whom they definitely would not vote for in November. While 38 percent gave thumbs down to Obama and 43 percent to Clinton, 52 percent outright rejected Huckabee, 55 percent Giuliani and 62 percent Romney. The one person who wouldn't be overrun by Obama and Clinton is McCain. McCain's "no" votes the same as Clinton's, and in hypothetical national matchups, he's in a statistical dead heat with both of them.

3. IN FOR A SHORT NIGHT IN NOVEMBER

While national polls give an indication of candidate strength, the 2000 election drove home the point that it is the electoral college votes where the presidency is won. Recent polls by Survey USA, conducted in three states where the vote was close in 2000, indicate John McCain is the strongest candidate the GOP can pit against Clinton and Obama. It's startling to see in Oregon, Washington and Ohio how well McCain does compared to his Republican rivals. In Oregon, Obama beats Romney by 23 points, Giuliani by 21 and Huckabee by 17, but he is tied with McCain. In Washington, Clinton beats Giuliani by 13 points, Romney by 16 and Huckabee by 14, but she loses to McCain by 2. And in the pivotal state of Ohio, McCain is the only Republican leading Clinton and Obama. Bob Beatty is a political scientist and Topeka resident who has agreed to provide analysis of political polls and trends on an occasional basis for the Daily Dose. Beatty frequently is sought by members of the news media for comment about Kansas politics and serves as political analyst for KSNT-TV.

(c) 2008 Topeka Capital Journal. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved. Polls Show Romp for Dems If GOP Doesn't Pick McCain
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