McCain Rides Wave into Florida

Jan 20, 04:10 PM

Jan. 20--One state now stands between an elbow-to-elbow Republican field and the Feb. 5 voting sweepstakes that could clinch the party's presidential nomination: Florida.

John McCain's hard-fought win Saturday in South Carolina, coupled with his come-from-behind victory in New Hampshire, puts him in an enviable position heading into another Southern state -- and the nation's fourth largest.

But unlike in South Carolina, McCain-leaning independent voters can't participate in Florida's Jan. 29 primary, and the heavily Republican Cuban-American community, whose leaders are split among the candidates, looms as one of the biggest prizes.

McCain plans to kick off his Florida tour Monday at the landmark Versailles restaurant in Little Havana and then head to Jacksonville and Pensacola, where the Vietnam War hero can tap a large population of military retirees and their families.

"This is huge because it's all about the momentum and that's what we'll ride on, though we're not going to take Florida for granted," said campaign spokeswoman Melissa Shuffield of the South Carolina vote. "We're aggressively campaigning in the Sunshine State, and we fully expect we can win."

Florida polls conducted before Saturday's primary predicted a close fight, with McCain and Rudy Giuliani only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, the South Carolina runner-up. In a race without a clear front-runner, Florida's verdict will help seal the deal one week before Republican voters go to the polls in 19 states.

After focusing mostly on small states where voters can quiz candidates at diners and town squares, the Republican contest moves into media-driven mega-states like Florida, New York and California. So far, Giuliani and Romney are the only candidates who have been able to afford television ads in Florida, where one week on the air can cost $1 million.

But emboldened by the South Carolina vote, McCain's camp -- which pulled out of Florida last summer after running out of money -- can make a stronger case to donors. McCain has five fundraisers scheduled in the state over the nine days between Monday and Jan. 29, including a reception Friday at attorney Manny Kadre's home in Coral Gables.

Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina GOP primary has gone on to win the party's nomination.

For Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and a Baptist preacher, the failure to capture a fellow Southern state rich with evangelical voters was a major setback. He's also facing a money crunch, though three Florida fundraisers are in the works. Huckabee is tentatively scheduled to arrive in Florida Monday and tour the state by bus.

His supporters note that he was in single digits in Florida polls just months ago and has surged, without spending millions of dollars. He has pulled together a state volunteer campaign that includes House Speaker Marco Rubio and Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster.

"Nothing is set in stone. This is still a fluid field," said state Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, a Huckabee supporter who is helping the campaign open a Miami office.

"And Florida is a totally different animal."

Romney was running fourth in South Carolina as the results came in but won the less competitive Nevada caucus, giving him a degree of bragging rights at a press conference Saturday evening at Jacksonville International Airport. Hillary Clinton won the state's Democratic caucus -- the first test of the Democratic candidates' strength among Hispanic voters.

For Giuliani, the next 10 days will determine whether his strategy of ignoring smaller states and focusing almost exclusively on Florida will work. His longtime lead in Florida has evaporated, but he boasts the largest staff and has made the most visits to the state.

Giuliani wasted no time Saturday in defending his turf, criticizing McCain for voting against President Bush's tax cuts (though the Arizona senator now says he supports making them permanent).

It's unclear whether Fred Thompson will continue his campaign into Florida, where the polls show him in fifth place. Despite campaigning nonstop in South Carolina for the past two weeks, he was in third place as the results were being reported.

In a speech Saturday night before the winner was declared, Thompson gave what sounded like a farewell speech at first, but left the audience guessing.

"We're still operating as if he's coming to Florida," said Miami political consultant Carlos Curbelo. "We're doing phone banks, we have people walking and we're trying to raise money."

The Democratic candidates have vowed not to campaign in the state because its early primary broke national party rules and the state's delegates won't count at the nominating convention. The latest Florida Democratic polls have been mixed, with several showing Clinton retaining a longtime lead and others suggesting Barack Obama is closing the gap.

In a sign that the Obama campaign wants to tamp down expectations, it issued a memo last week declaring that Florida's votes won't matter because of the loss of delegates.

That's not stopping some Democratic activists in South Florida. Obama supporters are commandeering a float -- complete with a life-size cardboard cutout of the candidate -- in Monday's Martin Luther King Jr. Parade in Liberty City.

Clinton is slated to attend two fundraisers in Miami Beach on Jan. 27, but she has said she won't break her pledge not to make public appearances.

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