It's Anyone's Race Now: Romney's Michigan Win Blows Open GOP Field Ahead of S. Carolina Primary

Jan 16, 12:38 PM

Jan. 16--SOUTHFIELD, Mich. -- Mitt Romney revived his flagging campaign for president yesterday by winning the Michigan Republican primary, avoiding a loss in his home state that some pundits said would have been a body blow for his White House bid.

With 97 percent of the vote counted, Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, defeated Arizona Sen. John McCain 39 percent to 30 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee coming in third at 16 percent.

It was Romney's first major primary win after finishing a disappointing second to McCain in the New Hampshire primary and to Huckabee in the Iowa caucuses, despite spending millions of dollars in an effort to carry those early states.

It also means there now has been a different winner in each of the first three major presidential primaries and caucuses, leaving no clear favorite for the GOP nomination.

"You don't see anyone here who should be jumping up and down saying, 'We won! We're No. 1!' " said James Lindeen, political science professor at the University of Toledo.

David Rohde, who taught political science at Michigan State University for 34 years before going to Duke University in 2005, said the Michigan outcome "certainly keeps Romney in the race at least for now, and it's a real blow to McCain's progress."

"If McCain could have won tonight and won in South Carolina, he could have established himself with a commanding lead for the nomination," Rohde said. "That chance is gone for him. Now, it becomes a question of survival."

Romney had insisted his campaign wasn't over if he lost Michigan, where he was raised and declared his candidacy for president last February. But he also had called it "ground zero" and campaigned with a promise to help an ailing Michigan economy and fix a broken Washington.

"Tonight marks the beginning of a comeback, and a comeback for America," Romney told a boisterous crowd at his victory party at a suburban Detroit hotel. The crowd chanted "Mitt, Mitt, Mitt" and waved foam mitts.

"I think we've shown them we don't mind a fight, and we're ready," McCain said last night in South Carolina, where the campaign now shifts. Republicans vote in a primary Saturday and Democrats on Jan. 26 in South Carolina, and both parties are holding caucuses Saturday in Nevada.

The candidates then hope to remain viable after the Jan. 29 Florida primary to compete in the 22-state Super Duper Tuesday contests on Feb. 5. A treasure trove of delegates will be available that day -- 1,678 of the 2,025 needed to win the Democratic nomination and 1,038 of the 1,191 needed for the GOP nomination.

William C. Binning, former chairman of the political science department at Youngstown State University and a former county GOP chairman, suggested yesterday's outcome increases the odds that nomination still will be in doubt by the time Ohioans vote March 4. But other observers think the GOP race will be over by then.

On the Democratic side in Michigan, only Sen. Hillary Clinton was on the ballot and no delegates were at stake after the state was punished and other candidates withdrew because Michigan moved up its primary against party wishes. National Republicans also sliced Michigan's 60 GOP delegates in half for the same reason.

Clinton captured 56 percent of the vote in Michigan, and second place went to "uncommitted" at 40 percent after supporters of Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards urged their supporters to vote that way. Ohio Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich got 4 percent.

Ron Paul, who had vocal supporters in Michigan, finished fourth in the GOP primary, while former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and other candidates who skipped campaigning in the state finished well back.

Unless Giuliani does "extraordinarily well in South Carolina," he likely will be effectively eliminated even before he gets to Florida, Rohde said.

It was expected that a large crossover vote by Democrats and a strong showing by independents would benefit McCain, just as it did when he won the 2000 Michigan GOP primary. But exit polls showed only 7 percent of Democrats took Republican ballots in yesterday's primary, with 25 percent of the vote coming from independents.

Jon Leszczynski, a 39-year-old computer programmer from Warren, said he voted for McCain as an independent in 2000 but voted for Paul yesterday because he thought McCain changed. "He cozied up to the Christian conservatives and sacrificed what he stood for," Leszczynski said.

Exit polls also showed that more than half of Republican voters identified the economy as their foremost concern, more important than the war in Iraq and illegal immigration.

Romney emphasized his business experience in the private sector and called McCain a "pessimist" for saying lost jobs in Michigan aren't coming back.

Dispatch Senior Editor Joe Hallett contributed to this story.

mniquette@dispatch.com

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