Remarkable Victories for 2 Insiders

Jan 09, 03:40 AM

Jan. 9--CONCORD, N.H. -- Forget the talk about change, at least for the moment. In New Hampshire, it was back to the future.

The two best-known Washington insiders on the ballot prevailed in the nation's first primary.

The victories by Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, 60, and Republican John McCain, 71, suggest that the races in both parties have a ways to go, with the GOP contest now utterly wide-open.

New Hampshire voters have a reputation for being contrarians. They reinforced that in spades yesterday, rejecting both of the Iowa winners.

Clinton's narrow triumph was downright shocking. Late polls in the state had shown her trailing Barack Obama by double digits.

Every sign on the ground, including crowd size and enthusiasm, appeared to be pointing strongly in Obama's direction. Clinton was frustrated that voters seemed to be discounting her years of experience. Her campaign was swept by rumors about who would be made to pay for the impending disaster.

The New York senator had been framed as the embodiment of the past, with voters seeming to say that electing a woman, at least this particular woman, wouldn't be change enough to satisfy the prevailing mood. Commentators had her dead and buried, stranded on the wrong side of history.

Then, the voters had their say. And all of that turned out to be wrong.

Clinton, who showed more of her personal side in the last few days, got strong support among women, 47 percent to 34 percent for Obama, according to exit polls. Some of those women apparently decided that having the first female president would be, as Clinton has said, "a huge change with consequences across our country and the world."

She also did very well among older voters. As expected, Obama carried the under-30 vote. But turnout among the young was less than spectacular.

It was hard to know who was more stunned by the outcome, Clinton or Obama.

Whether New Hampshire proves to be a turning point in the Democratic race remains to be seen. Going forward, some factors may work to Clinton's advantage.

In New York and some other states voting on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, participation is limited to registered Democrats; political independents are kept out. In other states, such as New Jersey, it's harder for independents to vote than in Iowa or New Hampshire.

With fewer independents involved, Obama may have difficulties. In Iowa, he ran about even with Clinton among registered Democrats. In New Hampshire, he lost them to her, 33 percent to 45 percent, according to the exit polls.

Despite her victory, Clinton is likely to continue to reshape her campaign. She figures to become more aggressive in her questioning of Obama's record, to criticize him on consistency, accomplishment and specificity.

Despite his defeat, Obama remains an inspirational figure with the ability to engage young people, attract independents, and energize Democrats.

And Obama already is working on responses to what Clinton and company have in store for him.

In response to the allegation that he is merely someone who talks a good game, he replied in the debate over the weekend: "The truth is: Words do inspire. Words actually do help get people involved."

In response to the charge that he lacks specific proposals, he rattled them off in a speech Monday night: "We're not being vague about this. . . ."

Obama now will come under more intense scrutiny -- and under pressure to address his supposed lack of substance and limited Washington experience. How well he survives those tests, and the heat from Clinton, will likely determine whether he recovers from what happened to him yesterday.

John Edwards will carry on. But after his distant, third-place finish, it's hard to see him playing a decisive role unless Obama falters.

McCain's win is a remarkable achievement in its own right. He was the front-runner a year ago. Republicans invariably nominate the man whose turn it is, and it was McCain's turn.

But his campaign almost fell off the face of the earth over the summer, the victim of internal problems and of visceral opposition among rank-and-file Republicans to the candidate's immigration plan.

Now, New Hampshire, where he trounced George W. Bush eight years ago, has bailed him out. Next comes Michigan on Tuesday, which he won in 2000, and South Carolina (Jan. 19), where he was bludgeoned into defeat.

With strong showings in both, McCain, the maverick, could emerge as the choice of the Republican establishment -- a potentially strong general-election candidate who is generally acceptable to the party's various factions.

Mitt Romney, after losing the second race in which he outspent the rest of the field by a wide margin, now looks ahead to Michigan, the state where his father once was governor. A loss there and he's dead. He's already in deep trouble, the victim of the image his opponents have hung on him, that of a political opportunist.

The third-place finish of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the Iowa winner, suggests there are limits to his appeal in states that are light on social conservatives and evangelical Christians.

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, despite running more commercials in New Hampshire than anyone other than Romney or McCain, was an also-ran again, edging out Texas Rep. Ron Paul for fourth.

Whether Giuliani will ever be a factor in the race remains to be seen; the chaos of the Republican battle may work to his advantage. The Florida primary, on which he remains focused, is three weeks away.

New Hampshire and Iowa, which have made their mark on the politics of 2008, are hardly representative of America. But in a red-and-blue country, they are purple states, battlegrounds in a general election.

In Iowa, Democratic turnout was double the Republican. Here in New Hampshire, Democratic turnout was nearly 30 percent higher.

Looking toward November, that difference could have major political significance, no matter who the nominees turn out to be.

And it's not good news for the GOP.

Contact senior writer Larry Eichel at 215-854-2415 or leichel@phillynews.com.

-----

To see more of The Philadelphia Inquirer, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.philly.com.

Copyright (c) 2008, The Philadelphia Inquirer

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA. Remarkable Victories for 2 Insiders
Back to Current Headlines