From 'Inevitable' to on the Ropes Clinton Trying to Stay Upbeat in the Face of Obama's Surge

Jan 09, 08:13 AM

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, the "inevitable" Democratic presidential candidate of just months ago, is in a fight for her political life, struggling just to stay in the race until February.

Her well-financed, highly organized campaign is fighting not to fall victim to a more charismatic opponent, Senator Barack Obama, in a compressed election calendar that gives small, early-voting states like New Hampshire wildly disproportionate sway.

The New Hampshire vote Tuesday also looked likely to scramble the Republican race thoroughly, with Senator John McCain, the expected winner, having no clear path to the nomination.

Obama, who was supposed to have been far too inexperienced to mount a serious campaign - he is 46, and four years ago was still in the Illinois State Senate - has pushed Clinton to the brink of tears, gotten her husband, Bill Clinton, to lash out angrily and left her supporters suddenly unsure.

Clinton is trying to steel herself against pessimism, advisers say, but both she and the former president are feeling disappointment.

"We're all resolved to the probability that's she's not going to win New Hampshire, and the mood has turned very despondent - fatalistic, probably," a leading Clinton fund-raiser and supporter said on condition of anonymity.

Desperate to remain relevant, the Clintons have hardened their attacks on Obama, even as Hillary Clinton has unembarrassedly made his theme of change her own. But attacking a charismatic orator as he calls for greater civility, while echoing - in an older voice - his youthful calls for change, may amount to an impossible squaring of the political circle.

Still, Clinton has been doing everything possible to hold on, and she is not without resources. She is well-funded, and retains the support of much of the national Democratic establishment.

Support can erode quickly, however. The Los Angeles Times quoted Brian Quintana, a longtime political operative and film producer, as saying that if Clinton lost in New Hampshire, Hollywood "will defect to Barack in droves."

"Barack is simply too close to making history for Hollywood not to be part of it," Quintana said. "For most of us, Hillary was our first choice, but she has come up short. Barack has become a movement."

Clinton has been hard-working and tenacious. She has also kept her head up through difficult times, including her husband's marital scandals and impeachment.

But a New Hampshire loss would leave everything subject to change, her aides said. That includes her style of campaigning, which shifted dramatically Monday when Clinton bared her thoughts about the race's impact on her personally, and her eyes welled with tears.

"I couldn't do it if I just didn't passionately believe it was the right thing to do," she said, her voice quavering.

The flash of feeling underscored the pressure, fatigue, anger and disappointment that, advisers say, Clinton has experienced since her loss in Iowa.

The senator and her husband were said to be taking the campaign much more directly into their own hands. Important campaign officials might be replaced. She might start calling herself the underdog. Donors would receive pleas to hold firm. And she might begin focusing on populous states like California and New York whose primaries are Feb. 5.

The frustrations have poured out of the Clinton camp in recent days, not always in flattering ways. Her camp rationalized the Iowa defeat in tones sometimes peevish and hypocritical-sounding, suggesting that the state was not all that important, even after the senator had invested millions of dollars and spent hundreds of hours there. Critics perceived a sense of entitlement by the Clintons.

On Monday, Bill Clinton blamed both the media and the compressed primary schedule for helping Obama surge past his wife.

Asked in Claremont how the Clinton camp planned to move past Obama, the former president said, "There might not be enough time, because New Hampshire made a decision that I didn't agree with."

He was referring, the Manchester Union Leader reported, to the state's decision to move its primary to within five days of the Iowa caucuses, giving voters in the New England state little time to examine Obama's positions closely.

"The point is, the momentum is broken when people get to think for themselves and not get caught up in the press hysteria," he said.

Bill Clinton also attacked Obama's claim that experience mattered less than being right on the issues.

"Give me a break," the former president said. "This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen."

Candidates now will have to decide quickly how to spread their funds and personal presence over a far larger national canvas, culminating in the Feb. 5 primaries in more than 20 states that the Clintons and others believe will decide the race.

Clinton's decline appeared to start in late October, with a weak debate performance that had her rivals sensing vulnerability. Obama, meantime, had been steadily rising in the polls, helped by his own strong performances and speeches.

Clinton's advisers say she has felt frustrated and at times rejected as she has watched Obama's rise. But she is also worried that her political strategy, polling and communications message have not reflected the mood and desire for change among Democratic voters.

In an interview Monday, Clinton said she had choked up at the Portsmouth event because a questioner had expressed concern for her feelings, after months when Clinton was focused on voters' anxieties.

"It was just so touching when this woman said, 'Well, what about you?'" Clinton said. "I just don't think about that, I think about what I can do for other people." It was difficult to gauge exactly what impact the episode would have. To some voters, it appeared genuine, perhaps understandable after all the candidate has been through, and helped humanize her.

Alison Hamilton, who attended the event, said that she previously had been considering Obama. But afterward, she told ABC News, she decided to vote for Clinton.

"Her whole thing today really convinced me, but that really did clinch it for me," Hamilton said. "She's very impressive."

To others, the incident seemed a bit staged, reinforcing their doubts about a woman many see as cold and controlled.

Win or lose, Clinton planned to move forcefully past New Hampshire, contrasting her plans with Obama's, most likely including television commercials criticizing his positions on health care and, possibly, Iraq.

Advisers say they believe she needs a victory before Feb. 5 - if not in New Hampshire, then in Nevada on Jan. 19. Clinton fears that Obama's support among black voters in South Carolina, which will hold its primary Jan. 26, might sway the vote there.

So far, Obama has been able to use his charisma and rhetorical abilities to make the most of the foreshortened election calendar. Clinton, while trying to show off the advantage her mastery of policy details should give her, has risked seeming didactic and boring.

Patrick Healy reported from Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

Originally published by The New York Times Media Group.

(c) 2008 International Herald Tribune. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved. From 'Inevitable' to on the Ropes Clinton Trying to Stay Upbeat in the Face of Obama's Surge
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