EDITORIAL: Inevitable? Ha!: New Hampshire Voters Level the Field for Both Parties

Jan 09, 04:44 AM

Jan. 9--Here's the headline news from New Hampshire: The race for the presidential nomination in both parties is wide open.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton confounded the pollsters to roar back and slow the momentum Barack Obama picked up with his victory in Iowa. It was a terrific night for Sen. Clinton.

For the Republicans, Mitt Romney's slump continued. John McCain's victory, coupled with the negligible showing of Rudy Giuliani, leveled the GOP playing field.

It was a surprising turnaround for both Sen. Clinton and Sen. McCain. The conventional wisdom, as well as many polls, suggested Sen. Obama was riding a surge of support that would carry him to the nomination. In New Hampshire, that wave hit Sen. Clinton's seawall. Last summer, Sen. McCain's campaign was in disarray and all but broke. Now he's a contender again.

Sen. McCain's win helped Mr. Huckabee, too. The former Arkansas governor beat Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani without putting much time or money into New Hampshire. Instead, he used the past week for TV appearances and interviews to broaden his national appeal and raise money. It seems to be working. Polls show him moving into second place (behind Mr. Romney) in the Jan. 15 Michigan race and into the lead in South Carolina's Jan. 19 race.

The Iowa caucuses and N.H. primaries don't mean much so far as statistically locking up the nomination. A Democrat needs 2,025 convention delegates to win the nomination, a Republican needs 1,191. In both parties the Iowa and New Hampshire delegates combined don't rise above the double digits.

But the psychological impact is powerful. Before Tuesday's vote, new donors were lining up to give money to Sen. Obama and doubts were arising about Sen. Clinton. Now both camps are girding for a long fight. A McCain fundraiser said prospective donors who not long ago wouldn't return phone calls were now calling in on their own. And Michigan, where Mr. Romney grew up and his father was governor, no longer seems a sure thing for him.

What's next? The South Carolina primaries this month will be the candidates' first Southern outing. The first big-state primary will be Jan. 29 in Florida. Then comes Feb. 5, when two dozen states -- including California, New Jersey and New York -- hold caucuses or primaries for one or both parties. (So far as picking the nominees is concerned, North Carolina is irrelevant. Forty states vote before the May 6 N.C. primaries.)

The odds against John Edwards are strong, but he's a man with a message who seems committed to staying in the race, so the Democrats have three front-runners with similar views on issues who will scrap for votes until someone wins.

The Republicans have three -- maybe four -- candidates who appeal to different party factions and will be striving to broaden their appeal.

The big lesson from New Hampshire? Polls and pundits are interesting, but the voters decide.

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