Region Could See Population Climb 350,000 in Just 21 Years

Jan 05, 04:14 PM

The population of the West Midlands could grow by 350,000 over the next 21 years - more than the population of Coventry, according to official projections.

Figures published by the Office for National Statistics showed the population of the West Midlands was set to grow from 5.38 million today to 5.73 million in 2029.

Birmingham was set to grow from approximately one million today to 1.09 million, an increase of 90,000 people. The projections are based on current trends.

Separate figures show that migration is the single biggest factor driving population growth.

An analysis of population change over 12 months, also published by the Office for National Statistics, found that migration was responsible for a population increase of 19,200 in the West Midlands.

This includes migration from other parts of the UK as well as overseas, although more people are actually leaving the West Midlands than moving in from other parts of the country.

Natural population increase, caused by the birth rate being higher than the death rate, was responsible for another population increase of 12,200.

But immigration could fall off as nations such as Poland and Hungary became richer while Britain's economy faltered, one expert predicted yesterday.

Professor John Fender, Professor of macroeconomics at Birmingham University, yesterday said official figures and estimates for immigration were unreliable.

Population increases in the West Midlands were likely to be driven by high birth rates and immigration from abroad - but this could be set to fall, he said.

"A major factor has been immigration from Eastern Europe.

"But to some extent, most of that may have ended.

"I don't think we will get further large movements of people from Eastern Europe.

"As these countries prosper, workers may even leave the UK and go back.

"Secondly, the economy has been fairly strong in this country for the last ten or 15 years.

"However, while we do not know what will happen, it is possible that we will see an economic downturn.

"This would mean reduced migration into the UK."

Local authority leaders least year agreed to build 365,600 new homes across the West Midlands by 2026, to the fury of environmentalists.

The properties are needed not only because of population growth but because of the increasing tendency of people to live alone, according to Ministers.

The ONS figures also showed that while the West Midlands is popular with immigrants, it is less popular with people moving from one part of the UK to another.

Almost 100,000 people a year left the West Midlands to live elsewhere in the UK in 2006, including 40,000 from Birmingham.

Just 93,000 people came to the region from elsewhere in the UK, including 33,000 who came to Birmingham.

By contrast, 107,000 people left the South West of England for other parts of the country - but 134,000 arrived, an increase of 27,000 people.

Halifax bank yesterday said population changes were helping to drive housing demand, with the rise in population due to internal migration in the South West a "significant factor" behind the rapid rise in house prices the region has seen during the past 10 years.

The group said coastal areas had seen the biggest increases in net internal migration, with 16 of the 20 local authorities that had experienced the biggest gains being on the sea.

"I don't think we will get further large movements of people from Eastern Europe Prof John Fender

jonwalker@mrn.co.uk

(c) 2008 Birmingham Post; Birmingham (UK). Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved. Region Could See Population Climb 350,000 in Just 21 Years
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