Influx of New Residents May Sway Outcome in New Hampshire

Jan 04, 07:50 PM

The Granite State gained 207,000 new residents between 2001 and 2005 _ including about 90,000 who moved over the border from Massachusetts, according to a recent report by the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute. During the same period, 188,000 people left the state.

The turnover, along with anti-war feelings, has muddied the small state's political tableau. Democrats swept statewide elections in 2006, winning control of the Legislature and governor's office for the first time since 1911.

That would suggest a higher turnout of Democrats in the primary, but the fallout affects the Republican field as well.

Political analysts say Republican Sen. John McCain, who leads former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in some recent polls, can't count on the independents who aided his landslide win here in 2000.

This time, many of them are energized about the Democratic race and are more likely to vote in that primary, according to recent polls. That could benefit Obama, who's seeking independent voters to replicate his victory in Iowa.

That has left the GOP candidates, including McCain, to fight over more reliably Republican voters, said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center.

Many of the transplanted Republicans from Massachusetts, who settled in the southernmost part of the state, tend to favor their former governor, Smith said. After losing the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee on Thursday, Romney faces a must-win situation in New Hampshire.

"Those people moving from Massachusetts are keeping the state as Republican as it is," Smith said. "Romney does best in those (border) towns."

The New Hampshire race has largely become a contest between Romney and McCain, who gained momentum from a string of New Hampshire newspaper endorsements. In one poll issued this week, McCain led Romney among New Hampshire Republicans by 4 points; in another, he trailed the former governor by 4 points.

Both men have ratcheted up their criticism of each other. Romney's most recent TV ad attacks McCain's votes on tax cuts and immigration, saying the senator favored amnesty for illegal immigrants.

Last week, McCain responded that Romney "attacks when people are catching up with him" and underlined Romney's notable position switches, including his change to opposing abortion.

McCain still insists he can count on support from independent voters, saying they'll gravitate to him because he doesn't need "on-the-job training" for the presidency _ a poke at Romney's lack of experience with foreign policy. On Friday, McCain played up his independent streak, on display when he demanded the Bush administration put more troops in Iraq.

"No one else was ready to make that kind of reform," McCain said. "I'm proud to stand here as a person who has reformed and reformed and reformed."

Even Bruce Keough, chairman of Romney's operation in New Hampshire, said McCain remains appealing to many people in the state.

"New Hampshire loves comeback stories," said Keough, a former candidate for governor.

McCain, 71, polls best among GOP voters who have lived in the state longer than 20 years, according to a recent Boston Globe poll. Romney was favored, 36 percent to 27 percent, among Republicans who have been in the state fewer than 10 years.

Romney, 60, has exploited his connections to New Hampshire _ he owns a vacation house on popular Lake Winnipesaukee _ and his New England political resume.

The former businessman, worth nearly $350 million, describes himself as an unlikely politician who took on Massachusetts' entrenched Democrats and emerged with policy victories in health care, school choice and fiscal restraint.

Romney often promotes his state's law, passed when he was governor, requiring all Massachusetts residents to purchase health insurance. The plan led to 300,000 uninsured people getting private insurance; coverage was subsidized for those who can't afford it.

"I'm the only person running for president _ Republican or Democrat _ who can point to a health care success," Romney told an audience in Manchester last week.

That point has resonated for many Republicans, who echo Romney's claims when asked about their support for him.

"A Republican who could work and get things passed in Massachusetts is a real plus," said Tom Warguska, a dentist from Amherst, N.H., who attended a recent Romney event with his wife, Adriane.

But not all Republicans assume Romney's New England connection will mean victory in the primary. New Hampshire and Massachusetts share a rivalry that is somewhat akin to the relationship between Texas and Louisiana _ the more conservative state views the other as a spendthrift den of Democrats.

"We call Massachusetts, `Tax-achusetts,'" Adriane Warguska said. "They move up here to get away from all the taxes, and then they go vote for all the stuff they just left."

Now that Democrats control state government, some have continued to push for a state income tax. So far, Democratic leaders have resisted it.

But state lawmakers passed a law allowing civil unions. A bill requiring seat belt use _ the "Live Free or Die" state is the only one without such a law _ cleared the House, although it failed in the Senate.

Some longtime New Hampshire residents blame the newcomers.

"It's just changed the state completely," said Milford resident Nancy Waugaman, who returned to New Hampshire after working in Los Angeles for many years. "You see signs everywhere for Democratic candidates."

Mike O'Shea, a manufacturing engineer who grew up in Massachusetts and moved to New Hampshire to raise a family, said he found refuge in the low-tax, small-government state. But not all New Hampshire residents who came from the Bay State share his feelings about government, he said.

"Most of the people who are moving here from Massachusetts seem to have a lot different views than people up here," said O'Shea, who lives in New Ipswich and attended a town-hall meeting for Romney last week.

McCain has attracted support from Democratic-leaning independents in the past. But some experts say he can't count on a large infusion of independents in the Republican primary this year.

Between 60 percent and 65 percent of independents _ officially called "undeclared" _ are expected to opt for the Democratic race, Smith said. In 2000, 62 percent of them voted in the Republican contest, he said.

But Peter Witham, a Democratic voter, said he voted for McCain in 2000 and may switch to undeclared in order to vote for him again.

"Being a left-leaning Democrat my whole life, I still see the appeal in McCain," said Witham, a software salesman from New Market and lifelong New Hampshire resident. "For a lot of folks who have come into the state, that same appeal is there."

Keough, however, challenged that.

"Voters who come to New Hampshire usually end up being good, conservative Republican voters," Keough said. "They'll be good supporters of Governor Romney."

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