Noel Kills 20 in D.R., Aims at Bahamas

Oct 30, 09:56 AM

Current Headlines: By Martin Merzer, Frances Robles an, The Miami Herald

Oct. 30--Though a direct strike was not expected, Tropical Storm Noel turned toward already blustery South Florida late Monday after burying the Dominican Republic and Haiti under torrential rain that killed 20 people.

"The storm is right on top of the entire country," said Johanna Tarrazo, a Dominican government spokeswoman. At least 20 other people -- including seven children -- were missing, arousing fears a slow-motion disaster could be under way there.

No casualties were immediately reported in Haiti, but officials placed that country on "red alert" and searched for victims. The ultimate human cost could be high given the steep, deforested mountains on Hispaniola, the island shared by the two countries.

Meanwhile, a change in Noel's projected path brought South Florida barely within the three-day cone of probability, with a close approach possible by Wednesday.

Forecasters said they might issue a tropical storm watch for the area Tuesday morning, and flood-control managers said they might have to push canal water out to sea -- even amid a persistent, historic drought.

"Obviously, we need to continue to monitor this thing," said Navy Lt. Dave Roberts, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. "If we're all completely wrong on this, we want to make sure everyone is prepared."

Watches and warnings covered the Bahamas and east and central Cuba.

The latest forecast carried Noel's center to within 110 miles of Miami and Fort Lauderdale by Wednesday afternoon with sustained winds of 60 mph -- 14 mph below hurricane strength.

At that point, however, forecasters expect another weather system to come along from the north and sweep Noel -- pronounced knoll -- back out to sea just in the nick of time.

In addition, most of the storm's worst squalls should be concentrated east of the center -- over the ocean and away from South Florida.

More good news, maybe: The stronger and better organized Noel becomes before it approaches Florida, the more likely it is to veer wide right.

"The possibility of a hurricane making landfall [in South Florida] is very, very minimal at this point," Roberts said.

In any event, the storm already was influencing the region's weather.

High surf crashed into beaches Monday, and gusty winds, rough seas, severe beach erosion, coastal flooding, rip currents and frequent showers were expected through at least Wednesday.

A high-wind watch will go into effect Tuesday night in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, forecasters said, meaning that sustained winds of at least 40 mph, with much higher gusts, are possible.

"At the very minimum, it's going to be pretty breezy," Roberts said, "so if you live in a condo on the beach, you might want to move your chairs off the balcony."

On Monday, Noel spent another day battering itself against the mountains of Hispaniola. Its winds diminished, but it still pumped perilous amounts of rain into swollen rivers and remote valleys Monday night.

Forecasters said 10 to 20 inches could inundate much of the island, with some areas receiving an unimaginable 30 inches.

Landslides and floods were reported in both nations, with the Dominican Republic getting the worst of it. Thousands of people were evacuated, and nearly 700 homes were damaged.

"We have police, firefighters, ambulances and public health workers displaced everywhere," said Tarrazo, a spokeswoman for the Dominican communications office. "Everyone is working on this."

Manuel Antonio Luna Paulino, president of the Dominican Republic's National Emergency Commission, told The Associated Press that at least 20 people died and another 20 were missing.

Authorities said three people died in a landslide in San Cristobal and two more in La Cienaga, near Santo Domingo. Firefighters fought through the rain to pull their bodies from the mud.

In San Jose de Ocoa, five people died when a stream overflowed, causing their home to collapse.

Thirteen people were missing in Monsenor Nouel in the central part of the country, including seven children and two adults who apparently were swept away by the rising Maimon River.

The emergency management office said many roads were impassable and several buildings had collapsed.

No immediate casualty reports came from Haiti, where government officials and United Nations peacekeepers kept a close eye on the slow-moving storm.

Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis urged residents to remain sheltered until Noel's trailing squalls finally leave.

"It's very serious now," Alexis said during a midday news conference. "It's moving very slowly and dropping a lot of rain."

Workers for Haiti's civil protection agency were dispatched to Les Cayes in the south to investigate reports of flooding, and many residents were evacuated from Cabaret, north of Port-au-Prince, where floods killed 30 people earlier this month.

Communications are limited even under the best of conditions in Haiti, and it could take days before officials learn about casualties and damage. In 2004, floods and landslides provoked by Tropical Storm Jeanne killed thousands of Haitians.

The mountains also disrupted Noel's course, causing its center to bypass Cuba and head straight toward the Bahamas -- and South Florida.

And at a most inconvenient and potentially dangerous time.

The official Miami and Fort Lauderdale forecast for Wednesday night and Halloween trick or treaters: "Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. North winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph."

By Martin Merzer, Frances Robles and Jacqueline Charles. Miami Herald staff writer Curtis Morgan contributed to this report.

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