GOP Field Poses Dilemma for Social Conservatives

Oct 19, 06:35 PM

Current Headlines: By Mark Silva, Chicago Tribune

Oct. 19--WASHINGTON -- In the courting of the Christian right, there are right answers and there are wrong answers.

And some of the Republican candidates for president, confronting a two-day screening by conservative voters that will culminate with a straw-poll Saturday, are reminding a critical constituency of the party that some have the wrong answers.

"I hope you know, I'm not going to con you," Sen. John McCain of Arizona told a ballroom-full of "social conservatives" assembled here Friday. Affirming his unrelenting opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage, McCain said: "I have been pro-life my entire political career. ... You need only examine my public record to know that I will not change my position."

Fred Thompson, former senator from Tennessee and star of prime-time television and film, delivered the same message:

Citing a "100-percent pro-life voting record," Thompson said from the stage: "That's who I was then, that's who I am today, and that's the kind of president I will be. ... As president of the United States, no legislation will pass my desk that funds or supports this procedure (abortion) without my veto."

The problem, for many of the evangelical and other conservative voters assembled here, is that some of the party's most prominent candidates cannot say the same thing: Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York, supports abortion-rights for women. Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, once supported abortion rights, but has become anti-abortion.

For this critical constituency, which represents perhaps four in ten of all Republican voters, the tougher question will center on a conflict of principle versus pragmatism: Embracing a candidate who hews to their vision of social values and "a culture of life" or reluctantly warming up to a candidate who can win. This means someone who can promise that the White House will go, as one leader puts it, to "anybody but Clinton"--Sen. Hillary Clinton, whom many view as the most likely Democratic nominee.

At the "Values Voter Summit," sponsored by the Family Research Council, they are commanding a full cast of candidates.

And these voters aren't talking about the war. They are talking about abortion, same-sex marriage and stem-cell research. And among them, they hope to settle on a candidate who cares as much about these concerns and a candidate who can win.

The message emanating from this hall--with results of a straw-poll promised Saturday--could resonate among a vast voting audience. The summit leader calls the straw poll "a values-test."

Thirty-seven percent of all Republican and Republican-leaning voters are evangelical Protestants, the independent Pew Research Center has found, and 43 percent say social issues will be "very important" to their vote in 2008.

Courting and turning out the religious right was critical to President Bush's election in 2000 and probably even more so to his reelection in '04. And, now, movement leaders insist that a GOP nominee who meets their tests on opposition to abortion, same-sex marriage and other issues -- including a strong foreign policy -- will be essential to motivating like-minded voters in 2008.

"There is a line that we will not cross, and that is the issue of life," said Tony Perkins, Family Research Council president.

That line could prove critical for the candidate who enjoys the most support among Republicans nationally at this stage of the campaign: Giuliani, alone among GOP candidates in supporting abortion rights. He plans to address this summit Saturday.

"I don't envision the majority of social conservatives actively moving toward endorsing a pro-abortion-rights candidate," said Perkins. "This issue runs strong, and just to sing the simple 'ABC song,' Anybody but Clinton, is not enough to rally social conservatives."

At the same time, Perkins downplays the talk of fellow conservatives, such as Dr. James Dobson, radio-host of Focus on the Family, who warns that conservatives will be forced to rally around a third-party candidate if the GOP backs Giuliani.

"There is no desire to create a third party," Perkins said. "There is simply a statement that, if the party breaks ranks with social conservatives, there will be a number of social conservatives who break ranks with the party."

As Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) told voters here: "When conservatives run on principles, we win. When conservatives run away from principles, we lose. ... Conversions are supposed to be made on the road to Damascus, not the road to Des Moines."

This poses a ripe opportunity for any of the party's other leading candidates to stake a claim to the religious right. And they have staked that claim here as plainly as they could.

"I really don't know what I would do in my first 100 days" as president, Thompson candidly and conversationally told voters here. "It would depend on the circumstances. ... But I know what I would do in the first hour," he said. "I would go into the Oval Office and close the door and pray for the wisdom to know what is right. ... I would pray for the strength to do what is right."

They audience rose to their feet and applauded.

"Wisdom," McCain told the crowd, with a promise to appoint "strict constructionist judges" as president, "suggests that we should be reluctant to change the definition of marriage that has existed for thousands of years. ... Wisdom suggests that we should give unborn children the same protection our parents gave us."

Still, some question how important allegiance to a single issue such as abortion or a polarizing question such as same-sex marriage will be in an open contest for the White House.

"The evangelical community is by no means monolithic," said John Green, senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. "It's not just social issues that they care about."

While many may be upset by Giuliani's stance on abortion, he says, "this is where it gets into another issue, which is a certain pragmatism--he may not be perfect, but he is most likely to win. ... It may be that the prospect of Hillary Clinton in the White House could bring a lot of people around to Giuliani."

The quest for the evangelical vote is complicated by other hurdles as well. One-quarter of those evangelical voters surveyed by Pew say they are reluctant to vote for a Mormon.

This places Romney, both a Mormon and a convert to the "pro-life" political camp, in a difficult position here. He supported abortion rights in a Senate campaign against Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), but says he has evolved to full opposition to abortion.

Romney's Web-site displays a video "On Choosing Life." In it, he states: "While I arrived at this place and principle only a few years ago, I appreciate decades of dedication. I know that it's not time, but conviction, that unites us."

While he may convince many of his sincerity, Romney still must assuage others concerned about his religion.

"Part of him establishing himself with the religious right agenda is having to confront the Mormon issue," said David Lanoue, political science chairman at the University of Alabama.

And for any candidate who claims the endorsement of this summit, or who makes any other gains among the religious right, the nominee who runs to the hard right in the primaries still faces the challenge of tacking back to the center by November 2008.

"Coming out of this values conference, whoever wins the nomination is going to see his words coming back at him next summer," Lanoue said. "Anything they say in the primary is going to be used against them by Democrats in the fall."

Mdsilva@tribune.com

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