Almost Half of British Troops Could Be Out of Iraq By June

Oct 08, 06:11 PM

Current Headlines: By Matthew Hickley

BRITISH troop numbers in Iraq could be almost halved by June, Gordon Brown is expected to tell MPs today.

After the political backlash over his claim last week that 1,000 soldiers would be 'home for Christmas', the Prime Minister will try to head off further criticism by setting out more detailed plans.

These will promise dramatic falls in force levels next summer - provided the fragile security in Basra does not collapse.

The existing force of 5,300 troop will be reduced to around 3,000 or even fewer in the next rotation of British Army units planned for May and June 2008, Mr Brown is set to tell the Commons.

The announcement will be carefully-worded, with caveats linking further withdrawal to the state of security in Basra in the coming months.

But the pledge remains a political gamble, as any failure to meet the timetable due to renewed violence in Basra risks being seen as a major setback in foreign policy.

The Premier will avoid any mention of Afghanistan, according to sources, despite the fact that troops pulling out of Iraq are likely to find themselves sent to bolster the fight against the Taliban.

Mr Brown's statement also risks reopening the rift with Washington over the UK's future role in Iraq.

Senior U.S. military figures are frustrated by British military withdrawals and by what many see as the UK's loss of control in Basra.

The last remaining British troops inside the city pulled out last month and all units are now based at the heavily-defended airport a few miles away.

They are maintaining what the

Iraq by June Ministry of Defence calls an 'overwatch' role - ready to surge back into the city if local Iraqi police and army units lose control.

Levels of violence have fallen, although the airport base remains under regular attack from insurgents with mortars and rockets.

Serious doubts remain over the effectiveness and the loyalty of the Iraq police in the city.

With the situation still fragile, British commanders know they must retain enough troops to be able to defend themselves, or even to stage a 50-mile fighting withdrawal to the Kuwaiti border in extreme circumstances.

For that reason any reduction taking the force to as few as 3,000 personnel will be possible only if security improves in the coming months.

Mr Brown's statement in the Commons will coincide with a march past Parliament by the Stop The War Coalition..

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