Latest Census Estimates Show the County's Most Rapid Growth is in the Northwest

Jul 06, 11:41 PM

Current Headlines: By Tom Murse, Lancaster New Era, Pa.

Jul. 5--When a new family pulls into Lancaster County for the first time, U-Haul in tow, the safe bet has always been it's heading to one of the city's fast-growing suburbs.

You know: Manheim Township, East Hempfield, Warwick, West Lampeter.

But new population estimates hold a fascinating little nugget: Since 2000, the largely rural northwestern township of Mount Joy has grown faster than any of the county's 59 other municipalities.

"That is a bit surprising," said James Cowhey, executive director of the county planning commission. "I'm surprised that they have added more people than Manheim Township."

Mount Joy Township grew by an estimated 2,415 people, or more than 30 percent, between the official head count of 2000 and July 1, 2006, according to the Census Bureau. Its population last year was an estimated 10,359.

Manheim, West Lampeter, Manor, Warwick and East Hempfield -- the five fastest-growing townships in the 1990s -- follow closely behind in the number of people moving to or being born there since 2000. But because their populations are already relatively large, their rates of growth pale in comparison.

And, for comparison, the estimated number of new residents in Mount Joy Township in six years is slightly more than the total added by the county's fifth-fastest-growing municipality in the 1990s -- Manor Township -- in that entire decade.

Mark Wagner, who has served as Mount Joy Township administrator since 2003, said he has seen tremendous growth in residential development over the last several years.

"I think it's a very attractive area to live in," he said. "It's not too far from Lancaster. It's not too far from York. It's not too far from Harrisburg and Lebanon. It's got access to those four areas, and to Route 283, and yet is still a rural bedroom community."

The estimates, released last week, also show that the population has grown in another 48 of the 60 municipalities here. It stayed the same in one place, Lititz, and declined in 10 others, most dramatically in Lancaster City.

The estimates show the city losing about 2.8 percent of its population since the head count of 2000, or 1,569 people. The estimated population on July 1, 2006, was 54,779, down from 56,348 in 2000, according to the Census Bureau.

However, the census estimates each year in the 1990s showed the city losing population as well, and when the actual head count of 2000 came out, it held this surprise: an increase, albeit a small 1.4 percent, in the number of people living there.

Given that, Lancaster Mayor Rick Gray was skeptical of the new projected population losses.

"With the demand for housing around here in the city -- both rental and purchased housing -- if we're losing population, I don't know where it's from," he said. "Frankly, I don't believe that."

The estimated population shrank in nine of the county's 18 boroughs, most dramatically in the college town of Millersville. The number of people living there dropped by 6.5 percent, or 503, to 7,271 last year.

Also losing population: Columbia, Manheim, Ephrata, East Petersburg, Marietta, Strasburg, Christiana and Akron. The number of people who call Lititz home stayed the same.

Gaining population since 2000: Mountville, Denver, Mount Joy, Quarryville, Adamstown, New Holland, Elizabethtown and Terre Hill boroughs.

The Census Bureau released the countywide figures in March. The New Era reported then that Lancaster County's population on July 1 of last year was an estimated 494,486.

That is an increase of 5.1 percent, or 23,828, since the decennial head count of 2000. On average, the county has added an estimated 3,975 people a year since 2000, according to the census. The total population is expected to reach the 500,000 mark later this year.

Yet the rate of growth for the first decade of the 2000s is expected to be about 8 percent, the lowest here in more than half a century, historical data show. It is substantially lower than in the booming 1980s, when the population grew here by nearly 17 percent, or 60,476 people.

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