A Warning Sign in Census Data

Jun 30, 09:55 AM

Current Headlines: IT MAY NOT BE as attention grabbing as a grisly murder or the latest report about questionable dealings at Memphis Light, Gas and Water Division.

But for people who care about the city of Memphis, the population data released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau should be a serious cause for concern.

According to census estimates, the city's population declined by almost 12,000 from July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2006.

While the city's birth and death rates influence those numbers, it seems clear that there are more people leaving Memphis than there are moving here.

Memphis remains the nation's 17th-largest city.

However, Memphis is one of only seven cities on the top 25 list to experience net population declines over the last six years. That's not the kind of company Memphians should want to keep.

The news from the census report isn't all bad. The city's population grew ever so slightly (0.2 percent) from 2005 to 2006. As with financial investments, though, the long-term trends in population data are usually more significant than year-over-year gains.

It's not very smart for Memphians to simply say "good riddance" and wave farewell to those who are packing up and leaving. If the city's population decline continues, the consequences could be severe.

The tax base will erode, meaning those who remain in the city will have to pay a greater share of the cost of providing government services.

Neighborhoods hardest hit by the population losses may get caught in an ever-worsening cycle of decay.

Memphis can't annex its way out of this problem.

Annexations do increase the city's population, at least temporarily. But the city must also provide services in newly annexed areas, which means the economic gains of adding new residents are often largely (or completely) offset by the costs of extending services.

The trick, then, is to make more people want to live in Memphis. And figuring out how to do that should be near the top of the priority list for everyone running for Memphis City Council or mayor in the Oct. 4 election.

The answers won't be easy. Reversing the outward migration trend will require a comprehensive approach to lots of issues, including crime, neighborhood blight, economic development and many others.

While evaluating candidates, citizens might ask themselves: Would the city's population be higher or lower after this person has been in office four years?

The city's growth isn't something people should take for granted: According to census data, Detroit had almost 1.7 million residents in 1960. As of last July, Detroit's population had shrunk to 871,121.

The prospect of a half-sized Memphis should be enough to get the attention of any serious civic booster.

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BIGGER IS BETTER

After recent population declines, persuading more people to live in Memphis is critical to the city's economic health.

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