US Scientists Predict Alzheimer's 'Epidemic'

Jun 11, 06:25 AM

Current Headlines: By Michael Howie

THE world is facing an Alzheimer's disease "epidemic" with the number of cases set to quadruple by 2050, experts are warning.

The number of people worldwide living with the degenerative brain disorder is predicted to rise from around 26 million today to more than 106 million.

An ageing global population, particularly in developing countries, will fuel the increase, according to a study whose findings were presented at the International Conference on the Prevention of Dementia.

In Scotland, the number of sufferers will increase from 58,000 to 101,000 over the next 25 years, according to a study published last week by Alzheimer's Scotland.

Lead author of the US research, Professor Ron Brookmeyer, from the Bloomberg School of Public Health, Maryland, said: "We face a looming global epidemic of Alzheimer's disease as the world's population ages.

"By 2050, one in 85 persons worldwide will have Alzheimer's disease. However, if we can make even modest advances in preventing Alzheimer's disease or delay its progression, we could have a huge global public health impact."

The biggest rise is predicted to occur in Asia, where 48 per cent of sufferers currently live. There, prevalence will grow from 12.65 million cases in 2006 to 62.85 million in 2050, accounting for 59 per cent of all cases, the study said.

The disease is thought to be costing the UK GBP 17 billion every year. Lindsay Scott, of Help the Aged Scotland, said future cost implications from its growth would be "huge".

But he believes research already underway could ultimately help to find a cure.

The charity is helping to fund a massive study by scientists at Edinburgh University, called the Disconnected Mind, which is examining the detailed mental development of 1000 people over 60 years.

"We feel this study has the potential to unlock some of the secrets so we can find out why this disease strikes some people," Mr Scott said.

Meanwhile, experts in California have unveiled a new test that can predict a person's risk of getting dementia in the next six years. The test combines medical history, checks on cognitive function and a physical examination and is 87 per cent accurate.

(c) 2007 Scotsman, The. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.