Forecasters Predict Up to Four Hurricanes This Season

May 31, 07:10 PM

Current Headlines: FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ The predictions, yet again, are alarming.

For the six-month 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins Friday, government forecasters project that two to four hurricanes will strike the United States. A team of private forecasters estimates the chances are 3-in-4 that a monster storm will make landfall.

True, meteorologists said the same thing, more or less, last year, and all South Florida got was a soggy tropical storm. If all this makes you jittery, cynical or unsure what to do, consider the advice of emergency managers.

They say: Prepare for the 2007 hurricane season as you would any other, regardless of the long-term outlook. And that means being ready to weather at least one bad storm, perhaps as many as three.

"We know that it doesn't take but one, and when that one comes, we know it's going to take away service and we know it's going to take away power," said Charles Tear, Palm Beach County, Fla., emergency management director.

To understand the importance of storm readiness, all area residents need do is consider the aftermath of Hurricane Wilma in October 2005, Tear said. It caused widespread misery, including massive power outages and seniors stranded for weeks in high-rise buildings.

Yet, Wilma was relatively weak, hitting most of the region with Category 1 conditions, with sustained winds of less than 95 mph. Just imagine the potential devastation of a major hurricane, Tear said.

"People get mad at me when I say that, so I don't say it too often," he said.

So what does being ready mean?

Residents should plan to be self-sufficient for at least three days, and preferably for up to two weeks, should a storm hit, said Lori Vun Kannon, Broward County's emergency management director.

She suggested that residents brace for the possibility of two or three storms hitting in the same season, because that is what happened in South Florida in 2004 and 2005. Preparations should include everything from stockpiling drinking water and food to knowing what to do with elderly parents, children and pets, she said.

"No matter if it's a slow season or an active season, people should be prepared in any event," she said.

Despite calls for readiness, a Mason-Dixon poll released Thursday indicated many residents living within 30 miles of the coast between Maine and Texas are cavalier about preparing for the season. It found that 53 percent of people quizzed don't feel vulnerable to a hurricane, 52 percent don't have a family disaster plan and 25 percent won't prepare their homes until a hurricane watch is issued.

Furthermore, 20 percent think it's the government's responsibility to provide food, water, medicine and shelter in the days after a storm, even though officials say they might not be able to offer help for more than a week.

Officials said the poll results are disturbing, considering that proper preparations can mean the difference between life and death.

"It's really kind of startling, when you consider all the storms we've had in the past few years," Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp said at a news conference at the National Hurricane Center. "We hope these poll results can be overcome."

Government and private forecasters agree the meteorological tea leaves portend a very active six months. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University predict nine hurricanes will form, five of them major, meaning sustained winds of 111 mph or more. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects seven to 10 hurricanes, with three to five of those major.

Yet, long-range seasonal forecasts can be off. Both NOAA and the Colorado academics overestimated their early projections for 2006 because they misread atmospheric conditions.

For this season, experts say two main meteorological factors are in play: The Atlantic basin remains in a period of heightened storm intensity. And El Nino, an atmospheric condition that shears tropical storms apart before they can swell into swirling monsters, has waned.

Last year's Atlantic storm season was relatively calm, with 10 storms, including five hurricanes. It was an astonishing turnabout, experts said, considering it followed the most active and destructive hurricane season on record in 2005.

Bill Proenza, the new director of the National Hurricane Center, said he is worried that last year's lull might have bred complacency. He is further alarmed, he says, that about 7 million new residents move to U.S. coastal areas each year.

"By in large, most of them have little experience with tropical weather," he said. "So it's more important than ever for us to have the best track and intensity forecasts out in the future."

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(c) 2007 South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

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