Area's Population Surge Contrary to Overall State Picture

May 27, 10:03 PM

Current Headlines: By Doug Dalena, The Stamford Advocate, Conn.

May 27--STAMFORD -- Southwestern Connecticut has been bucking statewide population trends in its cities and small towns, and that is likely to continue, according to new projections from the University of Connecticut.

The area's population is expected to remain younger, more culturally diverse and grow faster than the rest of the state for most of the next quarter century, according to projections by the university's Connecticut State Data Center.

Whereas many of the state's small towns are projected to lose population, the wealthy towns on and near Long Island Sound and the New York border are gaining. Stamford and Norwalk are projected to grow by 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively, from 2000 to 2030 -- about twice as fast as the state as a whole. As a group, the wealthy towns near those cities are projected to grow nearly three times as fast, with most of the growth coming from people in the work force.

"Basically, your working-age population in Stamford is increasing, whereas statewide you see about 180 degrees different," said UConn demographer Orlando Rodriguez, who directed the study.

But Rodriguez cautioned that the projections are better at telling what has happened than what is happening now or will happen.

"We look at the past, and say, 'If the past repeats itself, this is what you can expect,' " he said.

The projections are based on historical census data, so they don't reflect recent construction or development proposals. But demographers calculated that Stamford edged out New Haven in 2005 as the state's third-largest city, with about 600 more residents.

By the 2010 census, UConn predicts Stamford will have 5,000 more residents than New Haven, but its population will remain below those of Hartford and Bridgeport.

Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy thinks the study grossly underpredicts the city's growth, saying his city eventually will have the highest population in the state.

"Stamford has been routinely, I think, undercounted and underpredicted," he said. "I think we keep growing at a rate that most people don't predict."

Stamford developers have embarked on major housing construction since 2000, with more than 5,000 new housing units approved or in the planning stages within a mile of downtown.

City officials expect that development to bring more than 10,000 new residents to the city in the next decade -- growth unaccounted for in the study.

The numbers don't take into account limits to growth, such as the higher cost of real estate, and barriers to development such as restrictive zoning regulations in surrounding towns.

While population growth in most of the leafy, wealthy suburbs surrounding Stamford and Norwalk is predicted to grow faster than the area's two largest cities, more striking is where that growth will come from.

While the two cities will gain more immigrants and ethnic minorities if trends continue, they will lose many whites, and eventually the median age will increase, according to the study. The wealthy towns will gain young professionals and white people overall, with the median age dropping.

In Westport, for example, the study shows the population of 20-to-24-year-olds will nearly quadruple, and the number of 25-to-29-year-olds will more than triple by 2030, accounting for half the town's population growth. The under-19 population will grow by 28 percent in the same period.

"That we attribute to young professionals coming out of Manhattan," Rodriguez said. "In Norwalk and Stamford, it's an immigrant or minority-driven growth. In these small towns, it's high-income folks."

The changes could significantly affect the median incomes in the area, because racial minorities historically have lower education levels and lower incomes than whites, Rodriguez said. But he added that in a more culturally diverse area, located near New York City, income disparities may not prove as great.

Stamford's white population is projected to drop by 15,000 from 2000 to 2030, according to the report. In the same period, the number of Hispanics will nearly double, from 23,700 to 45,400.

If the projections prove accurate, whites will account for less than half the Stamford population by 2015 -- falling to 49 percent from 61 percent in 2000. Hispanics will represent 26 percent of the population by 2015 and 33 percent by 2030, up from 17 percent in 2000.

The number of African-Americans in Stamford will remain relatively stable, but fall as a percentage of the population, from 16 percent in 2000 to 13 percent in 2030.

The fastest-growing ethnic group in Stamford is the catchall called "other," made up mostly of mainland Chinese and South Asian Indians, the study states. That group is projected to nearly triple in size compared with its population in the 2000 census, surpassing the African-American population in Stamford by 2030.

"I predict it's going to mean a lot less in 2030," Malloy said of the focus on ethnic breakdowns. "The lines are just increasingly blurred, and I think at some point it becomes irrelevant."

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Copyright (c) 2007, The Stamford Advocate, Conn.

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