Is Tehran Really to Blame for Mounting Death Toll? ; THE FREE AND THE FALLEN

Apr 06, 01:59 AM

Current Headlines: By ANNE PENKETH

Tony Blair's warning to Tehran was a reminder that the West's problem with the Iranian government remains as intractable now as it was before the 13-day hostage crisis began.

In other words, how do you solve a problem like Ahmadinejad? "The real question is not what deals were done between Britain and Iran, but why were the sailors freed so quickly?" said one European diplomat.

The diplomat argued that the opaque nature of the Iranian government means that a crisis could be triggered again at any time. "It's the same with the nuclear programme - we just don't know what their real objectives are."

Mr Blair's accusation that "elements" of the Iranian regime are backing attacks inside Iraq underscored the fact that Britain's relationship with Iran remains fraught with danger.

The same day, he had been talking about exploiting the "new and interesting lines of communication" which had opened up with Iran, as a result of direct talks with the top Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani.

But yesterday, the Prime Minister was warning that Tehran's meddling in Iraq could lead Britain "to reflect on our relationship with Iran".

He returned to the longstanding accusation that Iran was involved in supplying the roadside bombs used by Shia militants that are killing British soldiers in southern Iraq.

British and US forces in Iraq first charged in 2005 that some sophisticated bombs were coming from Iran. Tehran was also accused of supplying technology and training to Shia militias. British- controlled southern Iraq has a long border with Iran and it is believed to be a major supply route to the militias by the insurgents.

But there has been scepticism about the claims that the Iranian government had been complicit in the smuggling of weapons across the border. President Bush said last February that he did not know whether the "top echelons of government" were involved.

Iran has always strongly denied the accusations.

It could be, as a senior government source said yesterday, that Britain will be able to turn its consultations with Iran into a fruitful co-operation in dealing with those "elements" accused of the attacks against coalition soldiers in Iraq.

But there is also the possibility that the hardliners in Tehran may feel emboldened as a result of the hostage taking, increasing the risk to British naval and land forces in and around Iraq.

With mutual distrust still running high, the threat of a US military intervention remains on the table, particularly over Iran's continued defiance of the UN over its suspected nuclear weapons programme. "It's very encouraging that there are these high-level contacts, and one would hope they can work towards some compromise," said Dan Plesch, a nuclear specialist from the School of Oriental and African Studies.

"But I think the international political class underestimates Washington's immediate ability to deliver 'shock and awe' ... So the dismal scenario is that this will form part of an emerging crisis over the summer."

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