Deal or No Deal? Let's Wait and See

Apr 05, 06:29 PM

Current Headlines: By JAMES CHAPMAN

ON the steps of Number Ten last night, Tony Blair was quick to insist there had been no deal with Iran to secure the release of the captives.

The Prime Minister said: ' Throughout, we have taken a measured approach, firm but calm, not negotiating but not confronting either.' For several days, however, all the indications had been that diplomats were working towards a settlement of some kind. Despite firm denials, the crisis looked to be heading for a de facto prisoner exchange.

Many believe the capture of the Britons was a direct retaliation for the seizure of five Iranian officials by U.S. forces in the Kurdish Iraqi city of Arbil in January.

If they are quietly released in the next few weeks, it will be hard for anyone to deny a deal was made.

The first sign of a breakthrough came on Monday, when Iran's chief negotiator Dr Ali Larijani made a surprise appearance on Channel 4 News and said Iranian officials 'definitely believe this issue can be resolved and there is no need for any trial'.

The intervention of Dr Larijani, who advises Iran's more pragmatic supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was seen as the first real signal that Iran was looking for a way out.

There has been growing tension between the comparatively moderate Khamenei and the hardline president Ahmadinejad.

The generally-accepted belief was that the president planned to hold the captives for a lengthy period.

Khamenei is thought to have wanted a speedy resolution and he decided to pull rank.

The Larijani move prompted Mr Blair to pronounce on Tuesday that 'the door was open' if Iran wanted to resolve the standoff with diplomacy.

Then an Iranian diplomat, missing in Iraq for two months, was suddenly and unexpectedly released. Iran claimed Jalal Sharafi, who was seized in Baghdad by uniformed gunmen in February, had been abducted by an Iraqi intelligence unit with U.S. commanders. There was speculation that Britain pressed the U.S. to free him.

President George Bush insisted there would be 'no quid pro quo' over the hostages. But the Iraqi foreign ministry said it was working 'intensively' for the release of the other five Iranians to 'help in the release of the British sailors and marines'.

Late on Tuesday came the first direct contact between the British Government and the Tehran regime.

Humiliatingly for Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett, it was Sir Nigel Sheinwald, Mr Blair's chief foreign policy adviser, who made the 40-minute call to Dr Larijani.

Sources say he effectively agreed Britain would not encroach on Iranian waters in future.

The call persuaded the Prime Minister that Iran was ready for an 'early resolution'.

Syria which Sir Nigel visited secretly last year was also asked to exert pressure on Iran. Its foreign minister confirmed last night that Syria 'exercised a sort of quiet diplomacy to solve this problem'.

Yesterday, just hours before the hostages were freed, Iran said it understood that it would be allowed for the first time to send a representative to see the five detained Iranians.

Until the final hours, the pragmatists in Tehran were apparently concerned that Ahmadinejad could scupper progress with his reckless rhetoric.

He was instructed from 'on high' to postpone for a day a press conference he had planned for Tuesday.

It is believed Khamenei initially wanted to announce the release of the prisoners himself. But advisers told him to let Ahmadinejad take the credit.

Iran's most celebrated 'blog' commentator, Hossein Derakhshan, said: 'Ali Larijani, who brokered the deal, is the real president of Iran.

'That's why Ahmadinejad was reading from a script.' Whitehall officials say they were aware Ahmadinejad was planning some sort of 'big announcement'.

But there was still surprise at the manner and speed of the Britons' release.

Analysts said Iran would to claim victory and predicted the five Iranians would soon be quietly released.

U.S. expert Professor Gary Sick said: 'They can argue they got something out of it one diplomat released and access to the five they had not been able to see.

'I can imagine that, after the story dies down, these five might be handed over to Iran. It may be unilateral action by various parties without a written agreement.

'I personally believe the U.S. action was the fundamental origin of this dispute.' j.chapman@dailymail.co.uk

President Ahmadinejad's 'gift' to Britain was a dramatic end to 13 days in captivity for the 15 sailors and Marines, bringing to an end two weeks of rhetoric, propaganda and intense private diplomacy.

MARCH23 Heavily-armed Revolutionary Guards seized the Britons, on a routine stop and search patrol from HMS Cornwall, claiming they had strayed into Iranian waters at the mouth of the Shatt al Arab waterway.

MARCH24 Foreign Office holds 'frank and civil' talks with Iran's ambassador as Britain insists the Navy boats had never left Iraqi waters.

MARCH25 Tony Blair demands a swift end to the 'unjustified and wrong' detention but diplomats admit they don't know where the hostages are being held.

MARCH26 British ambassador Geoffrey Adams is told in Tehran that the captives are 'fit and well' as it emerges that one of the sailors 26-year-old mother Faye Turney.

MARCH27 The Government says it is 'utterly confident' the sailors were in Iraqi waters while Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett has second 'robust' talk with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

MARCH28 Iranian TV parades footage of the captured sailors eating a meal.

Tehran says it is ready to release Leading Seaman Turney, who is filmed saying they had 'obviously' trespassed into Iranian waters. She is said to have written a letter admitting to the Britons' guilt.

MARCH29 In a dramatic U-turn Iran says Mrs Turney will not be freed and piles pressure on Britain by releasing another letter from her, which calls for British troops to leave Iraq.

MARCH30 Another day and more TV propaganda. This time sailor Nathan Summers is shown - in obviously edited footage in which he 'apologises'. As Iran releases a third letter from Mrs Turney, Mr Blair expresses disgust at the 'parading and manipulation.'

MARCH31 President Ahmadinejad labels Britain 'arrogant' for failing to apologise as George Bush insists 'Iran must give back the hostages.'

APRIL1 Iranian TV shows Lieutenant Felix Carman and Royal Marine Captain Chris Air in front of a map of the Persian Gulf with Carman apologising for their intrusion into Iranian waters.

APRIL2 First signs of optimism as Iran promise to screen no more 'video confessions' after 'positive changes' in Britain's stance. Iran's negotiator Ali Larijani tells Channel 4 the crisis can be resolved through diplomacy.

APRIL3 Tony Blair describes the next 48 hours as 'critical' and it emerges that his chief foreign policy advisor, Sir Nigel Sheinwald, has been in direct telephone contact with Dr Larijani.

APRIL4 President Ahmadinejad, at a press conference postponed 24 hours, pardons and frees the 15 hostages.

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