Flu Would Leave Economy Weak

Mar 22, 07:13 PM

Current Headlines: By Julie Anderson, Omaha World-Herald, Neb.

Mar. 22--TRAINS, Trucks And Tourism -- among other industries -- make Nebraska's economy highly vulnerable if a flu pandemic hits, a Washington, D.C.-based group said today.

In fact, only four other states would be hit harder.

The Trust for America's Health, a nonpartisan health advocacy group, projected that a pandemic like the one that struck in 1918 could cause the second-worst recession since World War II and reduce the nation's gross domestic product by more than 5.5 percent, representing an estimated $683 billion loss.

Unlike some other recessions, this one wouldn't skate over Nebraska. According to the report, the state would sustain the fifth-highest percentage loss among the 50 states, with a projected drop in GDP of about 6.2 percent, a loss of $4.4 billion.

Iowa ranked as ninth hardest hit, with a potential loss of GDP of about 6 percent, representing a loss of $6.7 billion.

"The U.S. is not prepared to face an economic shock of this magnitude," Jeff Levi, the organization's executive director, said in a press conference call.

Government efforts have focused on medical and public health preparations, he said. Efforts to prepare for economic impacts are inadequate. Ramping up those preparations is vital to the nation's economic security.

According to the report, states with high levels of tourism and entertainment would be hardest hit. Nevada's economy would face the biggest declines with a loss of GDP of more than 8 percent, followed by Hawaii with a decrease of 6.6 percent. Six states, including Nebraska and Wyoming, would face losses greater than 6 percent.

The report estimates that transportation and warehousing -- big players in Nebraska's economy -- would take the biggest hit, at nearly $961 million. The effects on agriculture and manufacturing, the state's two largest industries, are significant but considerably less.

Misha Segal, a consultant with the organization and the report's lead author, said the impact on transportation and warehousing is based on workers' inability to report to work and on reduced demand for goods in the face of a pandemic.

The group considered effects on three economic drivers: worker productivity, loss of demand for goods and services in 20 industries, and disruption to trade. Information was drawn from several studies, including one by the Congressional Budget Office.

Levi said the report represents the first state-by-state breakdown, to his knowledge, of a flu pandemic's potential economic impact.

Dr. Joann Schaefer, Nebraska's chief medical officer, said she's not surprised to see Nebraska listed so high in terms of potential economic impact.

"That's why we've taken pandemic flu so seriously for so long," she said.

The Trust for America's Health consistently has ranked Nebraska highly in terms of its preparations for pandemic flu or a bioterrorism attack.

Those preparations continue, Schaefer said. State officials have met with businesses for months to help develop plans to respond to a possible pandemic.

Nebraska probably is one of few states to identify a point person to work specifically with businesses on flu preparation, she said. That staff member at the Center for Biopreparedness Education has met with nearly 400 businesses in the state. The center is a joint effort of the University of Nebraska Medical Center and Creighton University Medical Center.

"We know if a pandemic hits, it's not going to be business as usual," Schaefer said.

But Gary Hamer, deputy director of the Nebraska Department of Economic Development, said he was somewhat surprised to see Nebraska ranked so high in terms of potential losses.

The state, he said, has not prepared its own estimates. "If we had, they probably would be different than these numbers," he said.

He said it was difficult to gauge the report's conclusions without immediate access to the criteria the group used.

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Copyright (c) 2007, Omaha World-Herald, Neb.

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