Flu Pandemic Could Kill 33,000 in Kentucky: SEVERE HIT MIGHT SAP $8.2 BILLION FROM ECONOMY

Mar 23, 03:36 AM

Current Headlines: By Barbara Isaacs, The Lexington Herald-Leader, Ky.

Mar. 23--A major flu pandemic could kill 33,000 Kentuckians and spark severe economic losses in the state, according to a report released yesterday.

Kentucky could lose $8.2 billion -- a 5.87 percent reduction in the state economy -- in a severe flu pandemic.

Those were some of the stark findings of the Trust for America's Health report, which analyzed the economic effect of a severe flu pandemic.

Kentucky's gross domestic product, the total market value of all the goods and services produced in the state, could experience the 10th-highest percentage loss among the 50 states, according to the report's estimates.

"Our country is not prepared to face an economic shock of this magnitude," said Jeffrey Levi, executive director of Trust for America's Health. "This would be a real threat to our global economy."

The report modeled its findings on an outbreak as severe as the 1918 flu pandemic. In modern times, it's thought that such an event could sicken 90 million Americans and kill 2.2 million of them.

The report's scenario also looked at the effects of a pandemic that would last a year without vaccine widely available. In a flu pandemic, waves of illness could last several months, and there could be multiple waves during a year.

The report estimates that a widespread pandemic flu outbreak could spark the second-worst recession the United States has experienced since World War II.

"The threat remains, and it is real," Levi said. Flu pandemics occur about three times each century and vary widely in severity.

The Trust for America's Health, a non-profit, non-partisan health advocacy group, has released previous reports about other concerns, including bioterrorism preparedness.

Financial and economic experts estimated the effect a pandemic could have on 20 large industries, trade, and employee absenteeism.

One of the areas that would be most affected would be consumer demand for entertainment, tourism and food services, such as restaurant dining, said Misha Segal, lead author of the report. Segal said those types of businesses could see an 80 percent drop in demand.

In Kentucky, it's estimated that more than 1.2 million people could be sickened. The report estimates that Kentucky could lose $3.6 billion related to absenteeism and death among the work force.

Even those who weren't sickened might not be able to work, because they would have to care for sick loved ones. In a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would recommend voluntary in-home quarantine of people who live with those who are sick.

Almost all Kentucky industries would be expected to lose money, except for health care in the state, which could gain $428 million.

The report also suggested ways the nation and states could prepare industries for a possible epidemic, including improving provisions for family and medical leave, and increased ability to telecommute so people could work from home.

"We want to make sure people don't come to work sick and potentially spread a lethal virus," Levi said. He said those with no sick leave or health insurance might be the most likely to try to "tough it out," which could place others at risk. "We want people to be able to seek medical care if they think they're sick."

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Copyright (c) 2007, The Lexington Herald-Leader, Ky.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.

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